A new national study from Redfin has put Brooklyn among the top three U.S. counties experiencing the largest exodus from flood-prone zones. Kings County, which covers all of Brooklyn, lost 28,158 more residents than it gained last year, trailing only Miami-Dade, Florida, and Harris County, Texas. This Redfin analysis is the first since 2019 to show more people leaving than arriving in high-flood-risk U.S. areas. Across the country, high-flood-risk places lost nearly 30,000 more people than they brought in, whereas low-risk counties saw almost 36,000 more people moving in than out—the highest net inflow since pre-pandemic times.
The National Context for Brooklyn’s Outmigration
Redfin highlights Brooklyn’s net loss as part of a larger move away from costly coastal cities like Miami, Houston, and New Orleans, all facing rising insurance rates and increased flood threats. Using U.S. Census migration numbers and flood-risk assessments from First Street Foundation, Redfin defines “high-risk” as a county with at least 23.7% of homes exposed to major flood risk. Brooklyn’s old, densely packed infrastructure makes it especially vulnerable to storms and floods as these events become more prevalent.
Economic and Environmental Drivers
Real estate agents blame a mix of rising costs and climate fears for the outflow. “A lot of people moved to Miami during the pandemic, thinking life would be a vacation,” said Ozzie Linares, a Redfin agent based in South Florida. “Many of those people are now leaving because they’ve realized living here isn’t a piece of cake—the city has become increasingly expensive and extreme weather events are on the rise.” Linares mentioned his own homeowner’s insurance premiums spiked to $6,700 annually from under $2,000, with flood premiums rising from $400 to $1,250. These cost increases, plus high local taxes, are pushing many out of expensive, flood-prone markets. Brooklyn faces similar pressures as rising costs keep homeownership and even renting out of reach for many.
National Movement Trends
In the broader national picture, Miami-Dade County lost the most people net, with 67,418 more people leaving than moving in. Next was Harris County, Texas (Houston area), losing 31,165 residents. In Houston, where a third of homes are at risk for floods and extreme heat affects all, the trend persists. “People are always nervous about flooding in Houston, but it’s no longer the top concern,” said Roze Swartz, a Redfin Premier agent. “Now it’s the extreme heat, politics, and rising property taxes that are driving people away.” Many leavers seek out nearby suburbs with less flood risk and slightly better affordability.
Immigration Offsets U.S. Resident Losses
Some high-flood-risk regions, despite these losses, are still growing thanks to international migrants. Miami-Dade County’s overall population rose 2.3% in 2024, led by 123,835 international arrivals—the highest number nationwide. But Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather notes the pattern may change. “Many of the Americans who left flood-prone areas last year were replaced by immigrants,” Fairweather said. “But with the government cracking down on immigration enforcement, some immigrants are now hesitant to leave their homes during storms because they are afraid they could be detained.”
Brooklyn at a Tipping Point
Surging climate threats, housing expenses, and insurance rates have put Brooklyn in Redfin’s top-three for net outmigration, underscoring its challenges. Gradual population losses raise sustainability questions for New York’s most flood-risk neighborhoods, where infrastructure, cost, and resilience are more important than ever. For the full Redfin analysis, including county migration stats and nationwide comparisons, view Redfin’s report here. Subscribe to BrooklynBuzz.com
